Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS65 KPUB 241925
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
125 PM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heavy rain likely to occur over parts of the southeast plains this
afternoon into tonight.

- Low lying agricultural flooding in the western side of the San
Luis Valley likely for the next day or two.

- dry weather through next week.

- Another impactful storm possible next weekend (hopefully more
  snow then rain).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 123 PM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

The main concern in the short term will be a slow moving front
across the plains. This system. combined with plenty of high quality
low level moisture and a stout disturbance moving over the state
will allow for heavy rain to occur across parts of the plains,
mainly south and east of a line from Haswell to Fowler to Trinidad.
1 to 2 inches, with local 3 inch amounts, of rain will be likely in
this region between this afternoon and Sunday evening.

In addition to the heavy rain, some of the storm that occur along
this boundary may be on the strong side, with marginal severe
weather possible.

Another area of lesser concern this afternoon and evening is over
the San Juans and San Luis Valley. Although this area will receive
another 0.25 to 0.75 inches (with local higher amounts), the brunt
of it above ~9000 fee will be in the form of snow (and thus no run-
off) as temperatures over the higher terrain have cooled off to
around freezing. In addition, the heavy rainfall rates that occurred
with the initial first short wave are not expected due to the much
cooler temperatures. Nonetheless, any rain over saturated soils is
not good, but the impacts of this new rainfall should be minor
(modest rises on area streams/rivers).

By tomorrow morning, showers will still be lingering over the mtns,
with steady rain likely still ongoing across the far eastern
counties on the plains. This heavier rain over the far southeastern
plains may pick up again during the afternoon as another jet streak
moves through the longwave trough.

As for snowfall, I wouldn`t be too surprised at the very top of the
mtns will get some decent 4 to locally 8 inch amounts, especially
over the La Garitas, the central mtns and the northern Sangre De
Cristo mtns. The tops of Pikes Peak may see a few inches.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 123 PM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

For Monday onward into the end of the week, it should primarily be
dry with cooler temperatures over the region (60s/L70s plains).

The next concern will be next weekend. The strong EL NINO over the
Pacific is likely to continue to roar as an impressive subtropical
jet si forecast to develop and push another round of moisture towards
the southwest CONUS. This jet, combined with another impressive
Pacific trough should bring another round of impactful precip to the
region. This scenarios reflected in both the deterministic and
statistical guidance products (see any of the high elevation sites
on the NBM-1D viewer for next weekend). The good news is this next
weather system should be cooler and more of the precip over our
higher elevations should be snow. Of course the details still need
to be worked out, but next weekend looks like another active period
for the region. /Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1156 AM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Bands of showers will move across the region today affecting all
of the 3 taf sites, KPUB/KALS and KCOS. The showers will bring
lower cigs and vis restrictions, mainly MVFR. Later this evening
through tomorrow morning low cigs will likely develop at all of
the taf sites, especially KCOS, and IFR/LIFR conditions will be
likely.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...HODANISH