181
FXUS65 KPUB 142314
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
414 PM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry Sunday with increasing winds

- Critical fire weather conditions expected everyday next week,
  with potential for high end fire weather days, especially
  Tuesday

- Rain and snow showers return to the mountains and valleys next
  week, heavy snow possible along the Continental Divide

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 101 PM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

Upper ridge builds over the Rockies tonight and Sunday, bringing
dry conditions and well above average temperatures Sunday
afternoon. Highs will push into the 60s/low 70s plains, with
50s/60s high valleys, 40s/50s mountains as heights rise and
pronounced mid level thermal ridge develops across srn CO. Winds
begin to increase Sunday afternoon over the mountains along/west
of I-25 as surface lee trough develops on the plains. Getting
enough wind and low humidity for some enhanced fire weather
conditions over the Pikes Peak region and a narrow strip of the
plains west of I-25, though with recent rain/snow over the area
and at least patchy snow cover over Teller County, won`t issue
any highlights at this point.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 101 PM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

Upper trough deepens along the West Coast Monday with surface
low low pressure falling on the plains as a result. Increasing
winds aloft and tightening pressure gradient should bring
critical fire weather conditions to portions of the I-25
corridor, especially along and west of the Interstate, with less
wind farther east where gradient loosens quickly. Expanded the
current fire weather watch to include Fremont County, as wind
may keep just enough wly component for some gap flow enhancement
here, while keeping remainder of the original watch intact. Max
temps Wed will continue to rise, with readings into the 60s/70s
lower elevations, 40s/50s mountains.

Energy begins to eject from the western U.S. trough Monday night,
with a significant wave and 180 kt upper jet streak passing
over Colorado Tue. Should see snow start along the Continental
Divide by sunrise Tuesday, with periods of wind driven snow over
the higher mountains (especially the ern San Juans/Wolf Creek
Pass) through the day. Story farther east will be potential for
strong and damaging winds plus high fire danger, especially
along and east of I-25. Mid level flow really increases through
the day as jet comes overhead, with 7h/60kt at 5h/90kt winds
over the plains south the Arkansas during strongest mixing in
the afternoon. Grids have winds reaching high wind criteria
already, though still a little early for a High Wind Watch, as
position of the upper jet has sagged a little south in some of
the 14/12z deterministic models, so we`ll hold off another cycle
or two. Fire weather watch definitely on track along and east
of I-25, and while current models/ensembles don`t drive
dewpoints down low enough for a extremely critical conditions
(RH of 9 percent or less, winds over 55 mph), we could get close
as models tend to struggle getting the air mass dry enough under
strong wly flow.

Will note some models and the NBM have rather high (20-50
percent) pops spilling into the I-25 corridor Tue, suspect this
is overdone due to terrain resolution issues as strong
downslope subsidence and drying will tend to diminish any
showers, with just virga at best at most locations.

Wednesday - Friday: active weather is expected for south
central and southeastern Colorado, with critical fire weather
conditions remaining the biggest concern. Synoptically, a
prolonged period of strong westerly to southwesterly flow will
setup over the region, bringing a period of increased
orographic forcing over the mountains, along with gusty winds
through the week. Confidence remains high (70-80%) in this
pattern evolution given continued strong agreement between model
guidance. Looking at precipitation, showers are expected across
the mountains and valleys next week given the persistent
orographic forcing in place. The greatest coverage of showers
and heavier snowfall will remain along the Continental Divide.
The plains are expected to remain fairly dry given strong
downsloping winds. The greatest weather concern is still
expected to be a prolonged period of critical fire weather
conditions. Gusty to strong winds, and low humidity values, will
be in place across the plains everyday and fire danger will
remain high. Looking at temperatures, well above seasonal values
are anticipated early in the week, with a cool down by midweek,
though with temperatures still hovering slightly above seasonal
values. Some relaxation in the pattern is possible late Friday
into Saturday as at least some models/ensembles show some
temporary upper ridging building over the Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 414 PM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

KALS: Some brief patchy fog is expected in the area early Sunday
morning, around 11Z. Otherwise, VFR through 24 hours with winds
under 10 knots.

KCOS and KPUB: VFR conditions and winds under 10 knots are expected
through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday
afternoon for COZ222-226>230.
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
evening for COZ226>237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PETERSEN/SIMCOE
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion