000
FXUS66 KMTR 261126
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
426 AM PDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...New LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1226 AM PDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Light rain showers are possible today as a weak cold front moves
through the region. Breezy winds arrive later this afternoon into
tonight behind the frontal passage. Increasing sunshine will kick
off a warming trend Sat-Tue.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1226 AM PDT Fri Apr 26 2024

An upper trough will progress from the Pacific Northwest through the
Great Basin and and Desert Southwest through this evening. The upper
feature will escort a weakening cold front through the Bay Area and
Central Coast today with drizzle and/or light rain showers
accompanying its passage through this afternoon. Overall
precipitation amounts will be on the light side and generally under
0.05", although an isolated spot or two along the coastal terrain
could receive up to 0.15". Breezy northwest winds will pick up
rather quickly this afternoon and evening with lower elevation gusts
mostly in the 20-35 mph range. Still looking a bit below Wind
Advisory thresholds but it will be strong enough to blow around
loose items and perhaps bring a few tree branches down. Temperatures
will be seasonally cool with highs mostly in the lower to mid 60s.
However with breezy onshore winds the beaches likely won`t get out
of the upper 50s. Lows tonight will be a bit cooler following the
frontal passage with temperatures mostly in the 40-45 degree range
except near 50 along the immediate coast and within the urban
areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 426 AM PDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Forecast philosophy remains unchanged from yesterday afternoon. The
previous discussion follows:

The new upper level pattern  keeps mostly northwest onshore flow
into the weekend. While the immediate coast will continue to
struggle with cloud cover, most areas slightly more inland and well
into the interior will see quicker clearing times. This will place
most areas back into the 60s and 70s into the next work week, while
the coast will stick to around 60 degree highs. By the late week,
some of those more interior locations look to break into the low 80s.

Longer term models are in better agreement that the next rain maker
may just stay well to the north of the Bay Area and Central Coast as
the ECMWF model families have adjusted the next trough to arrive
over Seattle rather than the Bay area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 426 AM PDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Generally MVFR ceilings continue overnight with isolated -DZ.
Clearing is expected later this morning, but confidence in exact
timing remains low. Strong gusts will build through the day with
gusts generally up to 20-30 knots, with gusts diminishing overnight.

Vicinity of SFO... MVFR ceilings continue through the late morning,
with -DZ possible. Confidence has increased in strong gusts from the
west-northwest this afternoon and evening, with gusts up to 35-40
knots expected before diminishing overnight.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... Generally MVFR conditions through at least
the late morning. Some model output indicating that MRY remains
under MVFR stratus through the TAF period. Breezy west winds
building through the day, gusting up to 20-25 knots in the afternoon
and evening.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 426 AM PDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Look for strengthening northwest winds today and tonight with
gale-force gusts likely along the Big Sur coast. Gusty winds will
persist into the weekend and into early next week before easing. A
moderate period northwest swell will move through the waters this
weekend, with a new longer period northwest swell train arriving
by early next week. Look for low clouds along with some light rain
or drizzle today in association with a cold frontal passage.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM PDT Saturday
     for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt
     Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
     Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPM
LONG TERM....DialH/Murdock
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...SPM

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

NWS MTR Office Area Forecast Discussion