Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS65 KPUB 090714
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
114 AM MDT Wed Sep 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler behind passing front today, with a showers and storms
  developing this evening and continuing into the overnight
  hours.

- Warming and drying trend for Thursday and Friday, with spotty
  critical fire weather conditions developing over and near the
  higher terrain.

- Up and down weather pattern for the weekend into early next
  week, as a series of passing weather systems brings cooler and
  then warmer temperatures along with chances of precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 114 AM MDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has weak to moderate
westerly flow aloft across the region, with a short wave translating
through the stronger flow across the Northern Rockies at this time.
GOES water vapor and blended total water vapor imagery continues to
indicate ample subtropical moisture in place across the Desert SW
across the Southern Rockies and into southeast Colorado and the Central
High Plains, along with distinct drying across the Intermountain West
into the eastern Great Basin and western Colorado at this time.
Regional radars are indicating showers and a few embedded thunderstorms
across the southeast plains lifting out into western Kansas, with clouds
clearing from west to east at this time.

For today and tonight, the passing Northern Rockies wave remains progged
to send a cold front across eastern Colorado through the morning, with
breezy northerly winds of 15 to 30 mph developing behind the front across
the Palmer Dvd between 10Z-12Z, which continues to spread south across
the rest of the southeast Colorado through mid morning. Winds become more
east to southeast upslope through the late morning and afternoon across
the plains, while flow aloft remains west to northwest as the tail end of
said Northern Rockies short wave translates across the east through tonight.

Said passing front and developing upslope flow through the afternoon will
keep temperatures around seasonal levels today across the plains with
highs expected to be mainly in the 80s. Temperatures at to slightly above
seasonal levels remain across the higher terrain with highs in 60s and 70s,
with 80s for the high mountain valleys. Drier air working into south
central Colorado will limit convection across the ContDvd, however,
there will be enough moisture and potential instability for a few
showers and storms across southeast mtns and plains, especially
across the southern Sangre de Cristo mtns, Raton Mesa, and the Southern
Tier with stalled front just south across northeastern New Mexico.

Latest model data continues to support increasing convective development
across the southeast plains through the late afternoon and evening,
as said stalled front lifts back north across the plains overnight. This
leads to scattered showers and storms developing and continuing within
modest elevated instability across the plains. Best coverage looks to be
across the Raton Mesa and into the far southeast plains, where low level
jet strengthens overnight, leading to a few possible stronger storms, with
some higher res models developing helicity swaths across the plains overnight.
Have also spread pops northward across the I-25 Corridor and northern portions
of the plains, with ample moisture and some uvv from the tail end of the
Northern Rockies wave translating into the High Plains. With that said, we
will need to continue to monitor the how far north said convective development
is and for any possible flooding issues for the Aspen Acres burn area.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 114 AM MDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Drier air continues to move into ContDvd region and interior Valleys
Thursday and Friday, with breezy westerly winds likely developing
spotty critical fire weather conditions across the Central Mtns and
Upper Arkansas river valley on Thursday, which spreads into portions
of the San Luis Valley and the middle Arkansas river valley on
Friday. Otherwise, enough moisture remains in place across the Raton
Mesa and Southern Tier to support chances of storms on Thursday, with
isolated showers and storms moving back into the ContDvd region
on Friday. Temperatures warm up slightly on Thursday and back to
5 to 10 degrees above seasonal norms on Friday.

For Saturday and into early next week, models continue to indicate
ebbs and flows of available moisture and forcing as occasional waves
translate through the moderate to strong westerly flow aloft across
the Northern Tier. This will bring chances of precipitation and
cooler temperatures with possible fronts across the Plains on Saturday
and again on Monday. There could be another influx of subtropical
moisture across the Desert SW into western Colorado into the middle
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1057 PM MDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Another cold front will move through KCOS and KPUB between 12z and
14z with northerly gusts up to 25 to 30 kts. Otherwise, expect
VFR conditions for both terminals with dissipating cloud cover
overnight. Winds will shift around from the east to southeast
Wednesday afternoon with another round of showers and
thunderstorms possible. Best chances will be at KPUB and will
carry VCSH after 02z. A little less confidence exists for KCOS
so will keep some lower end VFR stratus after 02z.

KALS will stay VFR with light winds and clearing skies
overnight. Some VFR convective cloudiness will be possible
during the late afternoon and evening, but odds of -SHRA/-TSRA
is too low to mention in TAFs with activity likely to stay to
the east over the Sangre De Cristo mountains.  -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT