333
FXUS65 KPUB 011138
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
538 AM MDT Wed Apr 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow continues along the mountains today, with rain showers
  for the valleys and plains throughout the afternoon.

- Drier conditions expected tonight and through Thursday, with
  another storm system passage Friday.

- Drier and warmer conditions return for the weekend and into
  early next week, though showers may return Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1239 AM MDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Today: The midweek period continues to bring active weather to south
central and southeastern Colorado. A wave passage over the region
will bring persistent forcing and support, along with ample
moisture. With these factors, precipitation is expected for much of
the region. Snow will continue along the mountains given the
orographic forcing, with the heaviest snow remaining along the San
Juan Mountains. This snow will continue to impact mountain roadways,
causing slick and hazardous travel, so take extra caution traveling
across the higher terrain areas. As for the valleys and plains, rain
showers are anticipated as the wave pushes over. For the valleys,
scattered to numerous showers are expected to push off the higher
terrain and spread across these areas during the day, with only rain
expected given warm daytime temperatures. For the plains, isolated
to scattered showers will blossom by mid to late morning as a lee
cyclone develops and pushes east. These showers will follow this
surface low eastward, with the greatest coverage of showers
remaining along the eastern and northern fringes of this surface
feature. Given at least modest instability in place as the wave
passes over, some rumbles of thunder are likely across south central
and southeastern Colorado, but particularly the eastern plains,
where showers will be more convective in nature. Beyond all of that,
cloudy skies will be in place as the wave pushes over, with gusty
winds around 30-45 mph given the developing lee cyclone. Looking at
temperatures, a mild and more seasonal day is expected with the
unsettled pattern, with the plains reaching into the mid 60s to low
70s, the valleys into the 50s, and the mountains into the upper 30s
to 40s.

Tonight: Heading into Wednesday night, quieter weather starts to
make a quick return to south central and southeastern Colorado. The
wave that brought the busy weather during the day will be exiting to
the east, with subsidence and drier air increasing in its wake. With
both forcing and moisture lessening, precipitation is expected to
dissipate quickly from west to east during the evening hours, with
dry conditions then prevailing overnight. The exception to this will
be along the mountains, where weak orographic forcing will continue
to support isolated snow showers. Otherwise, cloudy skies will
quickly become mostly clear through the overnight hours, with winds
also rapidly weakening, though remaining breezy along the mountains.
As for temperatures, values will fall to around and slightly above
seasonal lows, with the plains falling into the mid 30s to low 40s,
the valleys into the mid 20s to mid 30s, and the mountains into the
20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1239 AM MDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Thursday - Friday: For the late of part of the week, mostly quiet
weather is expected Thursday, with some active weather returning
Friday. Thursday will be more of a reset day between the Wednesday
system and the approaching system that will push by Friday. With
only westerly flow/minor ridging, forcing still remaining weak, and
only modest moisture in place, dry conditions are expected
throughout the day Thursday. The biggest concern for Thursday may be
fire weather concerns across the eastern plains, as winds increase
ahead of the next approaching wave, and humidity values fall during
the day. Then for Friday, the next wave will influence the region.
While the core of this system will stay to the north, at least a
slight uptick in forcing is anticipated. This slight increase in
forcing, along with the modest moisture in place, will allow for
isolated to scattered snow showers to blossom along the mountains,
though particularly the central mountains where forcing will be
greatest. Elsewhere, dry conditions are anticipated, though isolated
showers can`t be ruled out along the I-25 corridor and eastern
mountains Friday as a cold front pushes southward and brings
localized forcing into the terrain. Outside of all of that, mostly
clear skies Thursday will become partly cloudy Friday as the wave
passes, with windy conditions expected both days. Temperatures
during this timeframe will fluctuate a bit, with above seasonal
values Thursday, and then cooling back to around seasonal values
Friday as the alluded to cold front pushes southward.

Saturday - Tuesday: For the remainder of the long term period,
fairly quiet weather returns to south central and southeastern
Colorado. A messy ridge will develop across the western US, and
given the lack of major forcing, and only modest moisture remaining
in place, dry conditions are anticipated. With that said though, a
couple of weak ripples/waves embedded within the overall flow may
allow for showers to blossom across the region early next week.
Otherwise, mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions will persist,
with winds reaming breezy. Looking at temperatures, a warming trend
is expected, with much of the area warming back to above seasonal
values for early April.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 533 AM MDT Wed Apr 1 2026

KALS...

Gusty south winds expected through this afternoon decreasing and
becoming southwest this evening. Occasional MVFR expected during
the daylight hours due to passing showers and lower cigs.

KCOS...

VFR next 24 hours. Gusty southwest to southwest winds
developing by mid/late morning becoming gusty from the northwest
by early evening. A passing shower possible this afternoon.

KPUB...

Gusty southwest winds developing by early afternoon becoming
northwest by early evening. Passing showers with brief mvfr
possible during the late afternoon. Breezy northwest winds this
evening then decreasing.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ058-
060-066-068.
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for COZ227>237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SIMCOE
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...HODANISH

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion